Tuesday, December 1, 2009

US Market Commentary (After Market Close): Broad Buying Follows Dollar's Decline

Tempered concerns related Dubai's debt debacle prompted participants to put pressure on the U.S. dollar as they rotated into riskier plays. The move favored stocks, which logged impressive, broad-based gains.

Affirmations from Dubai World that it is working to restructure a smaller load of debt than initially feared helped calm concerns about a potential default by the state-owned conglomerate. On Monday afternoon word had begun to circulate that Dubai wanted to renegotiate the terms of $26 billion in debt, rather than the $60 billion that was first rumored.

The news helped give a lift to global indices and caused currency traders to step away from the greenback. With the dollar drooping again, the Dollar Index returned to 52-week lows before paring losses to finish with a 0.5% loss.

The pullback in the greenback stirred broad interest in both equities and commodities. That combination proved particularly beneficial for materials stocks and energy stocks, which finished with respective gains of 1.6% and 1.4%.

Materials stocks were led by gold plays, which advanced 3.8% as gold prices climbed to a new record high near $1204 per ounce before they closed pit trade with a 1.5% gain at $1200.20 per ounce. Newmont Mining (NEM 55.66, +2.02) was a primary leader while Kinross Gold (KGC 21.10, +1.08) also provided support. Shares of KGC had the added benefit of an upgrade from analysts at JPMorgan.

Oil prices also fared well. Crude contract prices closed 1.5% higher at $78.46 per ounce. That favored oil and gas exploration outfits (+2.1%).

Retailers rebounded to a 1.8% gain after a slip in the previous session. Better-than-expected earnings and a strong revenue forecast from Guess (GES 41.82, +4.77) helped the company's shares outperform the rest of the pack and log their best single-session percentage gain since March.

Though all 10 major sectors finished in higher ground, financials lagged. The sector settled with a mere gain of 0.1% as consumer finance stocks (-0.8%) dragged. Bank stocks (unchanged) also had a lackluster session, even though analysts Citigroup upgraded shares of regional lenders Fifth Third (FITB 10.18, +0.10) and BB&T (BBT 25.60, +0.70). Banking issues had been one of the best performing industry groups in the previous session.

There were only a few corporate headlines this session, including news from CNBC that General Electric (GE 16.17, +0.15) has reached a deal to sell NBC Universal to Comcast (CMCSA 14.97, +0.31). Many of GE's investors have long called for the divestment in favor of higher growth opportunities. NBC Universal accounted for less than 10% of GE's revenue in 2008.

Ford Motor (F 8.88, -0.01) surrendered its gains following news that its November sales were flat, which is short of the 4.1% increase that many had come to expect. Meanwhile, Toyota Motor (TM 81.45, +2.91) said its U.S. division saw sales increase 11.5% in November. Honda Motor (HMC 32.36, +1.37) saw November North American sales increase 5.5%.

Economic data did little for participants. The ISM Manufacturing Index for November came in at 53.6, which is below the 55.0 that was widely expected and down from the 55.7 that was registered in October.

Construction spending for October was flat month-over-month. It was expected to decline 0.5%. The previous month's 0.8% increase was completely reversed to reflect a 1.6% decline.

Pending home sales for October made a month-over-month jump of 3.7%, which is better than the 1.0% decline that many had expected. The increase for October wasn't quite as strong as the 6.0% increase that was registered in September.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+1.8%), Telecom (+1.7%), Materials (+1.6%), Energy (+1.4%), Industrials (+1.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.3%), Consumer Staples (+1.3%), Health Care (+1.3%), Tech (+1.3%), Financials (+0.1%)Declining Sectors: (None)

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