Tuesday, November 17, 2009

US Market Commentary: After Market Close Stocks Overcome Slow Start for Solid Finish

The major indices overcame broad losses to finish incrementally higher as the U.S. dollar handed back a portion of its gains this session. The greenback's pullback helped materials stocks offset weakness among retailers.

After falling to a fresh 52-week low in the previous session, the Dollar Index rebounded as much as 1% before easing back to a 0.5% gain. The greenback's bounce gave the equity market an excuse to take a breather after setting new 2009 highs in the previous session. However, stocks showed a willingness to push even higher as the dollar pared its gains; in turn, stocks trimmed their losses to find higher ground late in the session.

Materials stocks garnered particular support late. The sector settled with a 0.9% gain after being down nearly 1%. The sector's turnaround stemmed from a rebound in commodity prices, which took the CRB Commodity Index to a 0.2% gain, and news from a regulatory filing that showed George Soros added 1 million shares of Potash (POT 110.60, +6.42) to his existing stake.

Though the materials sector showed strength, it didn't hold much sway with the broader market; the sector represents a mere 3.6% of the S&P 500's overall market weight. Still, the advance by materials stocks helped mitigate weakness among retailers. Shares of retailers slid 1.4%, even though Home Depot (HD 26.99, -0.66), TJX Companies (TJX 38.91, -0.61), Saks (SKS 6.67, +0.26), and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN 3.88, -1.13) all bested earnings expectations. TJX even went on to raise its earnings outlook, while Home Depot delivered an upside forecast. Pacific Sunwear's outlook proved displeasing, though; that resulted in the stock's sharpest single-session percentage slide of the year.

Though stocks settled the session with fractional gains, each of the three major indices was able to book new 2009 closing highs. The Nasdaq Composite was led by large-cap tech issues, while wireless services stocks provided leadership to the S&P 500. The Dow was led by Exxon Mobil (XOM 75.03, +0.60), which was upgraded by analysts at Barclays.

Data did little for stocks for the second straight session. Producer prices increased 0.3% in October, but that is a slower pace than the 0.5% increase that had been expected. Core producer prices fell 0.6% in October. A 0.1% increase had been expected.

Meanwhile, industrial production for October increased 0.1%, which is weaker than the 0.4% that had been expected. Capacity utilization came in at 70.7%, which is essentially in step with the consensus.

Among the day's economic speakers, Reuters reported that Richmond Fed President Lacker said that sluggishness in pockets of the economy should not deter the Fed from beginning to remove its extraordinary level of support. Though not a new observation, Lacker said he expects the economy to grow at a reasonable rate next year. He did indicate, though, that he won't look at the removal of monetary stimulus until economic growth is strong enough and well-enough established.

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