Saturday, March 13, 2010

US Market Commentary (After Market Close): Stocks Drift After Sentiment Survey Disappoints

Stocks set a fractionally improved 52-week high in the early going, but then spent the rest of the session stuck in a choppy sideways trade as a disappointing consumer sentiment survey weighed on the mood of participants.

Momentum from four straight gains helped position stocks for a positive start this morning. A weaker dollar also helped -- it traded with a marked loss for the entire session as the euro and British pound garnered support amid news that industrial production in Europe spiked a sharper-than-expected 1.7% in January. A recommendation from analysts at Goldman Sachs to buy the euro also helped the currency. The dollar closed down 0.6%.

The positive mood in early action was further supported by a 0.3% increase in retail sales and a 0.8% increase in sales less autos during February, according to the latest Advance Retail Sales Report. Economists had expected a decline of 0.2% for total retail sales and a 0.1% increase in sales less autos for February.

However, the tone of trade was subdued by the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for March. It came in at 72.5, which was below the 74.0 that had been expected. Disappointment over the survey led participants to ignore a flat business inventory reading for January.

Corporate headlines did little to spur interest in the broader market. Among blue chips, Pfizer (PFE 17.08, -0.21) announced that two of its drugs failed to meet their endpoints in a study and that it has ended a late-stage trial for another drug. Pfizer weighed on the Dow for the entire session.

Fellow Dow component United Technologies (UTX 71.53, -0.51) reaffirmed its fiscal 2010 earnings outlook, which failed to provide much of a cushion relative to Wall Street's consensus forecast.

National Semiconductor (NSM 14.38, +0.04) served up better-than-expected earnings and an upside forecast, but that did little for the overall semiconductor space, which finished with a collective loss of 0.5%.

On the other hand, retailers gained 0.6% as Aeropostale (ARO 28.18, +1.13) provided leadership after the apparel retailer reported better-than-expected earnings and issued a strong forecast of its own.

Commodities saw mixed interest this session. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index finished flat. However, oil prices fell a considerable 1.1% to $81.24 per barrel. Oil prices had actually eclipsed $83 per barrel in the early going as news circulated that the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil demand to rise this year.

The flat finish among both commodities and stocks marked an anticlimactic close to this week's trade, though action in previous sessions combined for a considerable weekly move. The CRB Commodity Index fell 1.3% this week, while stocks settled with a 1.0% weekly gain.

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