Thursday, February 11, 2010

Market Commentary (After Market Close): Dollar's Downward Drift Broadly Lifts Stocks

Participants continue to take their cues from the dollar, which surrendered a strong gain against a basket of foreign currencies to give both stocks and commodities a broad-based lift.

Stocks actually started the session on weak footing as the Dollar Index made its way from a moderate loss to a healthy gain. The move led many to dismiss a relatively pleasing weekly jobless claims report, which featured larger-than-expected decline in initial jobless claims to 440,000 and a continuing claims tally of 4.54 million -- a one-year low.

Participants also shrugged off China's softer-than-expected January consumer inflation reading, which helped Hong Kong's Hang Seng spike 1.9% (Japan's Nikkei was closed). The news wasn't cheered as much in mainland China, where the Shanghai Composite tacked on an unimpressive 0.1%.

Leaders from the European Union finally stepped forward to officially announce that financial assistance will be made available to Greece. No specific plan was provided, though, so many continue to speculate how much money will be involved and whether aid will extend to other countries that currently face fiscal challenges. Unlike earlier this week, the notion of such support failed to bolster the euro, which in turn gave the greenback room to run.

The Dollar Index was up as much as 0.6% this session. That put it back in touch with its weekly high, which was set Monday. However, the greenback eventually gave up its gain and finished flat.

The reversal represented an impetus for stocks to make a broad push higher. Natural resource plays made the best gains as both the materials sector and the energy sector advanced 1.6%, more than any other major sector. More impressive was that they outperformed the broader market for the entire session, even in the face of a firmer dollar during the early going.

Large-cap tech also exhibited considerable strength this session. That helped the Nasdaq book a better gain than either of its counterparts.

Financials had outperformed in the previous session, but lagged this time around. The sector mustered a mere 0.2% gain amid a pair of daunting headlines. The first was a feature from Financial Times that Gordon Brown, of the United Kingdom, indicated that leading economies are close to agreeing on a global bank tax. News that Senators Warner and Corker continue to work to put financial regulation back on track followed. Still, diversified bank stocks were able to trim collective losses of more than 1% to a more moderate 0.4% into the close.

Commodities also had a strong session, such that the CRB Commodity Index closed with a 1.3% gain at its weekly high. Precious metals were especially strong as they closed 2.3% higher, collectively.

Participants showed little taste for Treasuries this session. Part of that was owed to strength among stocks, while some stemmed from disappointing demand at a $16 billion auction of 30-year Bonds. The auction attracted a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.36 and an indirect bid of 28.5%. Its yield came in at 4.72%, which is above the 4.69% that had been expected by analysts.

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