Thursday, October 29, 2009

US Market Commentary (After Market Close): Positive GDP Surprise Bolsters Buying

A better-than-expected third quarter GDP reading helped the stock market snap back from its worst loss in weeks, but it wasn't enough to prevent stocks from heading into Friday with a week-to-date loss in excess of 1%. 

Despite some wavering in the first few minutes of trade, stocks put together a steady ascent that took all 10 major sectors higher. The broad-based gains stemmed from news that third quarter GDP surged to an annualized growth rate of 3.5%. GDP was expected to increase 3.2% after contracting 0.7% in the second quarter.

The stronger-than-expected growth overshadowed news that initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24 totaled 530,000, which is more than the 525,000 initial claims that were widely expected and still uncomfortably high.

Financial issues garnered the most support of the major sectors. The sector surged 4.3%, which is its best single-session percentage gain in three months. Life and health insurers (+7.6%) and multiline insurers (+6.7%) saw some of the strongest gains following a positive earnings surprise from Lincoln Financial (LNC 25.34, +3.09) and an upgrade of Genworth Financial (GNW 10.18, +1.49).

Materials stocks also fared well. The sector climbed 3.2% as broader market support and commodities and basic materials prices were propped up by a drooping U.S. dollar, which sank 0.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies in its first down session in one week.

Traders pushed oil prices up 3.1% to $79.89 per barrel, which helped the energy sector to a 2.4% gain. Exxon Mobil (XOM 73.96, +0.12) eked out a gain, but was generally a drag on the sector after it missed the consensus earnings estimate.

Fellow Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG 59.54, +2.31) posted a positive earnings surprise, as did its competitor Colgate-Palmolive (CL 78.94, +1.26). Though their results were strong, the consumer staples sector underperformed as broader market.

Telecom lagged for the entire session and even spent the first half trading with a loss as integrated telcos (-0.1%) offset strength in Motorola (MOT 8.74, +0.78), which posted better-than-expected third quarter earnings and upside fourth quarter forecast.

With participants pushing many defensive-oriented issues aside in favor of riskier holdings, Treasuries also came under pressure. That took the benchmark 10-year Note down some 20 ticks, which lifted its yield back toward 3.5%. Treasuries caught additional attention as results from a $31 billion auction of 7-year Treasuries drew a slightly stronger than expected bid-to-cover ratio of 2.65.

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