Thursday, January 27, 2011

Market Commentary (After Market Close): S&P 500 Struggle At 1300

The Dow and S&P 500 had a lackluster finish that came after they had wavered near key technical levels, but the Nasdaq managed to score a solid gain following a couple of exceptional quarterly announcements.

Netflix (NFLX 210.87, +27.84) and Qualcomm (QCOM 54.90, +3.04) helped the Nasdaq Composite lock in a nice lead over its counterparts for the entire session. The two stocks were distinguished by their bottom line beats and upside forecasts. Shortly before the closing bell Microsoft (MSFT 28.87, +0.09) posted an upside earnings surprise that pushed the Nasdaq to a session high, but the move was sold into the final minutes of the session.

The surprise announcement from MSFT also helped the S&P 500 clear 1300 and the Dow eclipse 12,000, but neither could hold the move. Both settled slightly below their psychologically significant lines.

Broad market participants were generally uninspired by stronger-than-expected earnings from Dow components Caterpillar (CAT 96.63, +0.88), AT&T (T 28.13, -0.60), and Procter & Gamble (PG 64.18, -1.93), as well as upside surprises from the likes of Eli Lilly (LLY 35.47, +0.52) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL 77.39, -2.61). The primary reason is that simply beating the consensus earnings estimate has become expected, especially in light of the stock market's climb in the past couple of months to two-year highs.

Murphy Oil (MUR 65.74, -7.49) failed to meet the consensus earnings estimate. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 26.35, +0.42) also came short of the call, but compounded the offense with downside guidance. Starbucks (SBUX 33.03, -0.04) beat expectations, but issued downside guidance.

Data today was mixed. Durable goods orders for December dropped 2.5% in an ugly follow up to the 0.1% decline that was recorded in the prior month. The sharp decline in December came as a surprise considering that the Briefing.com consensus called for a 1.5% increase. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.5%, but that still is not as strong as the 0.6% increase that had been expected among economists polled by Briefing.com or the 4.5% spike that had been recorded for the prior month.

The latest initial jobless claims tally for the week ended January 22 came in at a three-month high of 454,000, which is well above the 410,000 claims that had been widely expected. Continuing claims came in at 3.99 million, up from 3.90 million.

Pending home sales proved to be a much more positive surprise. They climbed 2.0% when a 0.5% decline had been expected.

The Dollar Index was down fractionally at the end of the trading day. Most of its slip was due to a narrow gain by the euro, although the yen fell a sharp 0.9% to 82.90 yen per dollar after S&P's downgrade of Japan's debt to AA- from AA.

Treasuries had a quiet session that ended with muted gains. An auction of 7-year Notes attracted a bid-to-cover of 2.85, dollar demand of $82.7 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 52.1%.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%), Tech (+0.5%), Industrials (+0.5%), Utilities (+0.4%), Health Care (+0.3%) Declining Sectors: Energy (-0.5%), Materials (-0.7%), Consumer Staples (-0.9%), Telecom (-0.9%)

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